About the outlook
The Swiss Entertainment and Media Outlook presents 5-year annual historical data and forecasts for the next five years across eleven industry segments, plus an annually adapted deep-dive into a hot topic and a special focus report on current media trends. In each segment of the outlook we share our point of view on the Swiss entertainment and media market and offer detailed commentaries on the major developments in the coming years.
Besides the in-depth analyses offered in the segment chapters, the premium access to this publication also contains additional information and more elaborate data, the opportunity to create custom made data selections and diagrams and to export chapters, data and diagrams to Excel and/or PDF formats.
How we derive the data
Historical information is obtained principally from confidential and proprietary sources. In instances where third-party sources are consulted and their information is used directly – from such sources as government agencies, trade associations, or related entities that seek to have their data disseminated in the public domain – the sources of such information are explicitly cited. In instances where the information is used indirectly, as part of the calculus for the historical data, the sources are proprietary. In instances where no reliable historical data can be obtained, assumptions are made based on industry expert judgment.
Recent trends in industry performance are analysed, and the factors underlying those trends are identified. The factors considered are economic, demographic, technological, institutional, behavioural, competitive, and other drivers that may affect each of the entertainment and media markets. Models are then developed to quantify the impact of each factor on industry spending. A forecast scenario for each causative factor is then created, and the contribution of each factor on a prospective basis is identified. These proprietary mathematical models and analytic algorithms are used in the process to provide an initial array of prospective values. Our professional expertise and institutional knowledge are then applied to review and adjust those values if required. The entire process is then examined for internal consistency and transparency vis-à-vis prevailing industry wisdom. Forecasts for 2016–2020 are also based on an analysis of the dynamics of each segment in Western Europe and on the factors that affect those dynamics. We provide compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) that cover the 2015–2020 period. In the calculation of CAGRs, 2015 is the beginning year, with five growth years during the forecast period: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. The end year is 2020. The formula is: CAGR = 100*((Value in 2020/Value in 2015)^(1/5)–1)
How we report the data in each chapter
Segment spending consists of advertising and end-user spending related directly to entertainment and media content. The introduction to each chapter begins with a definition of the spending streams that are included in that segment. We do not include spending on hardware or on services that may be needed to access content. End-user spending is counted at the consumer or end-user level – not at the wholesale level – and includes retail markups when applicable. Advertising spending is measured net of agency commissions, where possible. In addition to annual spending figures, we also present data that is measured at a single point in time, such as TV subscriptions, Internet subscriptions, mobile subscriptions, and newspaper unit circulation. In those instances, we show annual averages rather than year-end totals because annual averages more accurately connect the impact of those figures to annual spending. Furthermore, the comparison of Swiss advertising and consumer spendings to Western Europe should represent some of the relevant insights into the respective media segment, but is not to be considered terminatory. Detailed information about developments and revenue streams in the Western European market can be found in the Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016-2020.
The rounding of revenues, especially in the lower million range, may lead to variations in the calculation of CAGRs and individual totals.
Across all chapters, figures are reported in nominal terms reflecting actual spending transactions and therefore include the effects of inflation.
All figures are presented in Swiss francs based on the average 2015 exchange rate held constant for each historical year and forecast year. This means the figures reflect industry trends and are not distorted by fluctuations in international exchange rates. However, when comparing the different European markets, the effect of the strong Swiss franc comes into effect. The exchange rates used for the individual countries in Western Europe are depicted in the corresponding table.
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Nominal GDP growth
The chart below shows historical and projected growth rates for nominal GDP in Switzerland, based on the averages of available forecasts per year. As all revenues are quoted as current prices we refer to nominal GDP throughout our publication.
Use of outlook data
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